Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD has seen up and down price action today, as the trading week works toward the close. However, both pairs have found sellers near their hourly MAs at the session highs. Staying below keeps the sellers more in control today and going into next week.
Looking at the hourly chart of the AUDUSD above, both the 100 and 200 hour MAs are near converged. The highs for the day did see modest looks above the MAs (by a couple pips) but could not muster any upside momentum on the small breaks. The 200 hour MA is currently at 0.71205. The 100 hour MA is a bit higher now at 0.7123. If the price for this pair is to go higher, it needs to get and stay above those moving averages.
On Wednesday, the price did move above those moving averages and moved with momentum on “risk on” sentiment after the FOMC decision. However also on Wednesday, the price stalled right near its 100 day moving average at 0.72595 (higher overlayed blue line on the hourly chart above), and we all know what happened yesterday as the “risk on” sentiment turned to “risk off” sentiment quickly.
The price today is consolidating below those moving averages keeping the bias to the downside going into the weekend and into the new trading week.
For the NZDUSD , it too is trading up and down today.
Looking at that pair – like the AUDUSD – it raced higher on Wednesday into Thursday on the back of the “risk on”, but tumbled yesterday. The low yesterday reached the lowest level since July 2020, and took out the lows from Monday and Tuesday. However, selling momentum dried up and the price has been waffling up and down since the low. The low price today stalled near the low from yesterday. At the high, it stalled against the 100 hour MA (blue line) currently at 0.64504. Buyers and sellers are both leaning.
Overall, however, sellers remain in control below the 100 hour MA and the higher 200 hour MA at 0.64837. The buyers had their shot on Wednesday and they failed on Thursday.
Going forward staying below each keeps the sellers more in control.
On the downside…. yes ….the price needs to get below the Monday/Tuesday lows at 0.64105 and then the lows from yesterday and today at 0.63922, but those targets are likely to be broken as long as the 100 hour moving average can continue to hold resistance.
Both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD charts are similar and traders are using the MAs on each to define topside resistance. Time will tell, but the roadmap is drawn. The risk levels are known. The sellers remain in control and the buyers are not winning as long as the technical dynamics remain in place.