- Fed’s path will not necessarily cause a recession
- Fed needs to get inflation under control
- Inflation is high, persistent and broad based
- Getting inflation close to Fed’s goal creates certainty that enables growth and supports maximum employment
- Demand is strong and looks to remain robust
- A number of pandemic-era inflation pressures will eventually settle
- Rising borrowing rates will dampen investment levels and spending on interest-rate sensitive items like housing and cars
Barkin had some hawkish comments last week that were amplified but his path here is what several Fed members have been saying. They will get to neutral around year end, then decide on what to do next.