Crypto shorts should probably cover here, as ETHUSD is at $1500, and possibly enter again if price closes a 4hr or daily candle below the presented channel, and previously broken bull flag, now being retested for the 2nd time. Traders that are trading Ethereum or any other crypto, should be very minded to what the
Month: August 2022
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MON: EU Defence Ministers Meeting (1/2), UK Summer Bank Holiday; Australian Retail Sales (Jul), Swedish Trade Balance (Jul). TUE: EU Defence Ministers Meeting (1/2), NBH Policy Announcement; Japanese Unemployment (Jul), German CPI Prelim. (Aug), UK BoE Consumer Credit (Jul), EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Aug), US Consumer Confidence (Aug), JOLTS (Jul). WED: Japanese Retail Sales (Jul),
Weekend data out of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, a soft reading for Industrial Profits in July. Profits at industrial firms in China for the first seven months of the year (i.e. January – July) fell 1.1% y/y this compares with the +1.0% for January – June Earlier this month we had the July data
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Markets: S&P 500 down 3.4% Gold down $21 to $1737 US 10-year yield up 1 bps to 3.03% WTI crude oil up $0.34 to $92.86 USD leads, NZD lags There was a dovish lean in the market before Powell as the PCE inflation report came in soft. That was validated by Bostic as he said
<ul><li>S&P 500 down 143 points or 3.4% to 4057</li><li>Nasdaq down 3.9%</li><li>DJIA down 3.0%</li><li>Russell 2000 -3.4%</li></ul><p>Powell won't be getting too many backslaps from anyone at Jackson Hole tonight.</p><p>The old saying is that market's don't bottom on Friday's either and that data bears it out. <a href="https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Bespoke </a>shows that a 3% decline on a Friday
I’m not a fan of the Dollar Index as a technical indicator but I think it paints the right fundamental picture at the moment. The dollar retraced modestly after a big runup to relieve some overbought conditions and now it’s ready to challenge the July highs. Will it breakout? The Fed The catalyst for today’s
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It’s a rout everywhere in markets today but oil managed to hold up, gaining 58-cents to $93.06. That’s despite the risks of an Iran deal announcement on the weekend (admittedly, those might be two-way risks). In any case, I want to write about what’s unfolding in diesel right now. I believe that’s the metric to
It’s a wild year for the energy trade but so far, hurricane season isn’t adding to that. The peak of the season is more than a month away but it’s been a slow start. We’ve had three named storms so far and noting of consequence and the current map doesn’t look very interesting. Last year
It’s important to remember that this is a one-month measure that’s annualized. One-month July inflation in the main report was -0.1% so +3.4% annualized is still far above that. The 12-month Dallas Fed PCE trimmed mean was 4.4% vs 4.4% prior. The six month declined to 4.3% from 4.8%. From the chart, you can see
EURUSD moves back toward 100 hour MA The EURUSD is lower, but is still above the low for the day and the 100 hour MA. The current price is at 0.9977. The low for the day reached 0.99459. That took the price briefly below the 0.99515 level which was the low from July 14 low.
USDCAD runs higher with the dollar buying The pair – after dipping toward the low from yesterday, and the 50% of the recent trading range after the better than expected core PCE data – saw sellers turn to buyers as the Chair spoke. The 200 hour MA was broken first at 1.29512 followed by the
US 2-year yields are up 4 basis points to 3.417%. We were as high as 3.45% but have given some back. I’m closely watching bonds right now, particularly the front end of the curve for a clearer signal on Powell. It FX and equities it’s much more definitive with the dollar strong and equities taking
NASDAQ is back below its 200 hour moving average The major US indices are lower and that move has now pushed the tech heavy NASDAQ index back below its 200 hour moving average of 12425.85. The low rached 12374.13. The current price is at 12399.22. Stay below would tilt the bias more to the downside.
Comments from Jerome Powell at the 2022 Jackson Hole symposium. July lower inflation numbers are welcome but short of what’s needed by the Fed before confident in inflation moving down Fed is moving policy ‘purposefully’ to a level sufficiently restricve to return inflation to 2% With inflation running far above 2 percent and the labor
The question for me is: Where is the market positioned here? I don’t think Powell is going to say anything particularly hawkish. It will be the same push that every Fed policymaker is making right now: That rates will stay higher for longer. I dont’ think that moves the needle. I also think he’s not
This could be a big hint that the ECB wants to take on inflation head on. That said the bones of this report are brittle. One of the sources quoted said this: “I won’t necessarily back 75 but there is no reason it shouldn’t be discussed”… “If the Fed did it here is no reason
USDCHF falls toward the 200 hour MA The USDCHF is moving to a new session low and at the lowest level since Monday. The 200 hour moving average is being approach at 0.95907. That moving average is near a low swing area between 0.9591 and 0.96046 (see renumbered circles). A move below that level would
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<p>It's interesting that he's talking about a 'methodic' move and that's in contrast to Bullard who wants to front load. </p><ul><li>If there is a recession it would be shallow in my view</li><li>We will do what it takes to get inflation under control</li><li>Restrictive is clearly above 3%, how much more than that we'll have to see</li><li>I'm
We need to make sure we don’t overreact We have to narrow the demand supply imbalance. Hopeful the supply side can do some of the work I’d be comfortable just saying at 3.5-3.75% and just staying there and hopefully that does it It’s premature to think about cutting I’m starting to use the word more
The strongest to weakest of the major currencies As the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. Today key US core PCE data will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The data is a favorite measure of inflation for the Fed. The expectations are for a gain
The bull market is a term that describes when the market is rising or expected to rise. On the other hand, a bear market occurs when the price of an asset falls 20% or more for a continuous period. A bear market is a market in decline. The market’s direction is a dominant force that
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