USD/JPY continues to fall in what’s almost-assuredly intervention from the Japanese ministry of finance. The last time they intervened, they took USD/JPY from a high of 145.90 down to a low of 140.34. That was 556 pips. So far today, the high to low range is 151.94 to 148.00, or 394 pips. The same size
Month: October 2022
Market picture Bitcoin is trading near $19K on Friday morning, losing 0.5% overnight. It hovered between $18.9K and $19.3K on Thursday, remaining pinned closer to the lower end of its trading range due to pressure in the US equity market and gold at the close of trading in New York. Bitcoin has closed lower for
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The US dollar has reversed course. I’m sure the initial move was on the release of an article from WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos that highlighted a 50 bps hike in December but this move is too big for that alone. I mean, it’s certainly a crowded trade but EUR/USD is now up 80 pips from
There are quite a number of large ones layered out for EUR/USD, as highlighted in bold. They are all seen in between 0.9700 and 0.9850, with current spot price caught in the middle of that right now. The way I would view this would be to put together the expiries with the 100 and 200-hour
Two days up, two days down. That is the story for equities this week as the early gains are hanging on by a thread now ahead of the weekend. S&P 500 futures are down 10 points, or 0.3%, as the downside pressure persists amid higher bond yields in trading this week. Looking at the S&P
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One of the great mysteries of the current world is how Japanese inflation remains so low. Commodity inflation has skyrocketed, the government continues to spend, rates are still zeroed out and the currency has crumbled. Yes in the August CPI report, core CPI rose just 2.8% y/y and is expected to rise 3.0% in the
ING Research discusses its expectations for the EUR outlook around next week’s ECB policy meeting. “While it’s true that the ECB has consistently surprised on the hawkish side in the past few meetings, the positive impact on the euro have been null. As shown in the table below, EUR/USD mostly weakened in the six hours
USDJPY back above 150.00 The USDJPY tried to move down after reaching a peak of 150.079 in the early London session. The price moved lower in the NY session and traded to a new low of 149.545, as yields came off highs and stocks moved higher. However, Fed’s Harker ruined that idea saying that he
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Let’s face it…. the markets are really sensitive and that leads to weak hands on the upside and the downside. Fed’s Harker brought the markets back to reality saying that inflation will be around 4% next year and 2024 at 2.5%. Both are probably above the bulls expectations who see inflation moving down. Josh Brown,
<ul><li>Fed to keep raising rates for a while</li><li>needs to see sustained drop in inflation to change policy outlook</li><li>Fed actively trying to slow economy to curtail fresh inflation</li><li>Fed has made disappointing progress at lower inflation</li><li>Fed funds rate likely well above 4% by year-end</li><li>Future Fed rate actions will be driven by how the data performs</li><li>Expects Fed policy
The beleaguered UK PM Liz Truss says she will resign. Her term started on September 6. PM Truss resigns The leadership will be completed in the next week Will remain in place until a new leader is chosen The prime minister with the total shortest period in office was George Canning, whose sole term lasted
The strongest and the weakest of the major currencies The NZD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The UK political turmoil continues with Truss now meeting with 1922 committee chair Brady (and is being reported that “It is over” for the PM). The GBPUSD is back higher
The justification for tighter policy is clear Whether interest rates have to rise by as much as currently priced in financial markets remains to be seen Full comments There’s a slight pullback on market pricing for the BOE after his comments but nothing too material. After all, the immediate outlook remains the more important one
Market picture Bitcoin stays under pressure, slipping to $18.9K in low-liquid trading in Asia on Thursday morning, recovering to $19K by the start of the European session. Volatility remains compressed, allowing BTCUSD to cramp further into the corner of the triangle. A formal confirmation of an exit from the triangle we will get with a
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. In the case for EUR/USD, there are quite a number layered around 0.9700 to 0.9850 though the one at 0.9800 is the immediate focus with the 100-hour moving average sitting at 0.9795. That could help to limit any upside push on the session,
There was a bit of a brief respite in markets from the headline earlier that China is considering to reduce its inbound quarantine period from 10 days to 7 days. The dollar shot lower but has regrouped itself for the most part as equities remain pinned to the downside while bond yields are holding higher
Tesla has just reported profits that were a little bit underwhelming, and as a result, the stock price is now down slightly over 6% after hours. This makes it quite near to the even amount of $200. When a stock price is really near to a natural “magnet” that many people take into consideration, the
There was a time a few weeks ago when the market was feeling confident about projecting a Fed pause at 4.75-5.00% or lower but the odds or another hike are rising. Last week’s CPI report along with strong retail sales and climbing energy prices is causing a rethink. Fed officials are increasingly repeating the line
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Comments from the Chicago Fed President Adam Button Wednesday, 19/10/2022 | 22:49 GMT-0 19/10/2022 | 22:49 GMT-0 Evans is winding down his Fed career with his retirement planned for year end. I don’t think he’s saying anything here that we don’t already know but I’ll monitor for more comments and update here. The market is
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