WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos was out with his Fed preview earlier today and it didn’t leave many ripplines in the market.
The May Fed funds peak is priced for 4.91%, which is a tad above yesterday but the US 2-year yield is down 10 bps to 4.40%.
The article is titled: Fed meeting to focus on interest rates’ coming path.
It repeats that 75 bps is coming, which is something that’s 98% priced in currently. Then it puts the focus on 50 or 75 bps in December, which is certainly a healthy debate.
“Officials will see two more months of economic reports before their mid-December meeting, including on hiring and inflation,” Timiraos writes.
The report notes that ‘some economists’ say the Fed will hike above the 4.6% priced in the SEP but that’s hardly a leak.
From what I can see, it’s all about the data now. Powell will hike 75 bps, say that at some point the pace of hikes will slow and offer little about December, while endorsing the SEP but saying that the FOMC will do whatever is necessary to tame inflation.