AI image Higher interest rates aren’t yet hitting the consumer hard or bringing inflation back to target, according to today’s April PCE report. Inflation rose 4.4% y/y in an acceleration from 4.2% previously while personal spending surged 0.8% in the month. Bank of America has reaffirmed its base case expectation that the Federal Reserve will

The Atlanta for GDPNow model for 2Q growth tumbled to 1.9% from 2.9% previously. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent on May 26, down from 2.9 percent on May 17. After recent releases from the US

6/24 (25%) economists expect BOJ to end yield curve control (YCC) this year 11/24 economists expect BOJ to end YCC in 2024 5/24 economists expect BOJ toe end YCC in 2025 or later 2/24 economists expect BOJ to not end YCC at all 10/24 economists expect BOJ to start scaling back on ultra-easy policy in

The title to Deutsche Bank ‘s note says it all: Inflation – we have a problem; terminal now at 5.25% ICYMI, the data can be found from here: Deutsche Bank, in brief (bolding is mine): April inflation data was stronger than expected Price persistence remains a dominant theme in the UK – perhaps more so

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said changing the Bank’s policy target to the five-year bond yield, from the current 10-year zone, would be among options if it were to modify its yield curve control (YCC) policy in the future. falling raw material costs likely to slow inflation in coming months BOJ must avoid tightening

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Reuters with the report: Lloyd’s Register has told India’s Gatik Ship Management, which has become a major carrier of Russian oil since the Ukraine war, that it will withdraw certification of 21 of its vessels by June 3, the maritime services company told Reuters. “Lloyd’s Register is committed to facilitating compliance with sanctions regulations on

Bank of England Haskel is on the wire’s saying: Further increases in the bank rate cannot be ruled out. He prefers to lean against the risks of inflation momentum. Despite current difficult circumstances, embedded inflation would be worse. While some indicators suggest the labor market is loosening, he views it as still very tight in

Collins says Fed may be at or near time to pause Adam Button Thursday, 25/05/2023 | 14:31 GMT-0 25/05/2023 | 14:31 GMT-0 This is a bit of a pushback from the doves. The battle lines are clear now though with either one more hike in June/July or none. Key excerpt: While inflation is still too

Fed funds futures are bouncing around but currently show a 42% chance of a June 14 hike with the remainder unchanged. However there are now 22.3 bps of hiking priced in for the July 26 meeting, which is nearly a fully priced in hike. The dollar has cheered the indications on the debt ceiling as

0900 GMT/05:00 US Eastern time: Presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2022 by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos at the ECON Committee in Brussels, Belgium 1030 GMT/06:30 US Eastern time: Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel speaks 1330 GMT / 09:30 US Eastern time: ECB member and Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno attends a Bank