When I look at the July seasonals, there isn’t much in the FX market. The patterns are minor and the moves small as the summer complacency sets in.
One thing stands out though: US equities.
The S&P 500 has climbed for eight straight years in July with an average gain of more than 3%. Stretching back to the turn of the century, it’s not quite as strong but it’s still the third-best month.
Moreover, the first few days of the month — the July 4 week — are among the strongest days of the year, historically.
SPX monthly
Other tidbits (since 2000):
- Not nearly as strong for the DAX (mediocre month) and Nikkei (negative)
- 2nd best month for copper
- 4th worst month for the Dollar Index
- 4th best month for EUR/USD
- Strongest month for silver (but not gold)