Via Scotia, preview comments on what to expect from the Bank of Japan. Out of 46 forecasters within consensus, only 9 expect a hike. Markets are assigning a higher probability to a 10bps hike that has been floating around 70% odds with about 7bps priced. The case for hiking rests entirely upon gauging the degree
Month: July 2024
The price of crude oil is settling at $75.81. That is down $-1.35 or -1.75%. The high-priced today reached $77.69. The low price was at $75.35. The low was the lowest since June 7. Fundamentally, summer doldrums with weak demand from China is being offset by Middle East violence. Technically looking at the daily chart,
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not
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People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate
When technical levels overlap and find sellers (or buyers) leaning against that level, it should raise an antenna for traders as a “key risk focused level”. That is, if the price cannot get back above that level, the sellers (or buyers) are in control. Moreover, if multi-time frames (i.e. daily, or 4-hour , hourly, etc)
Dallas Fed Details: General business activity -17.5 vs -15.1 prior Company outlook -18.4 vs -6.9 prior Prices paid +23.1 vs +21.5 prior New orders -12.8 vs -1.3 prior Shipments -16.3 vs +2.8 prior Employment +7.1 vs -2.9 prior Overall, the details and the commentary are notably worse than the headline. I wonder if Hurricane Beryl
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for USD/JPY at the 154.00 mark. Amid the bigger swings in the past two weeks, the expiry level might be one to watch in terms of keeping a lid on price action in the session ahead. It
Deutsche Bank are forecasting a close call at the Bank of England meeting this week: 5-4 vote in favour of a 25bp cut expect the Monetary Policy Committee to deliver its first rate cut of the cycle this will lower the Bank Rate to 5% think the case for a rate cut rests on a
Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on a steady decline since the last US CPI report on July 11th. In the first stages of the pullback, we’ve been seeing a rotation from big cap stocks into small cap stocks as the Russell 2000 displayed an opposite price action. Eventually, the bearish momentum picked up and
UK retailers look to have endured another rough month as the retail sales balance slumps further in July. The headline reading is the weakest since April, with CBI noting that poor weather and softer demand conditions weighing on the retail sales. The outlook index for August is seen at -32, which is a mild improvement
The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate. CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range. A significantly stronger or weaker rate
As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. That combination reverses what has been more of a familiar theme with the AUD (or NZD) weakest and the JPY the strongest. Not surprisingly, there is a rebound in US stocks in the pre-market which is helping the
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet on the 30th and 31st: statement due at 1400 US Eastern time (1800 GMT) Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference follows a half hour later Deutsche Bank expect nothing at this week’s meeting: first 25 basis point cut in September followed by a 25 bp cut in November
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Wall Street Journal Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is out with his latest Fed preview and it doesn’t include any kind of leak about a potential cut. Instead, he highlights that the Fed will set the table for a September cut without pre-committing. That’s a consensus view given that Sept is fully priced in, including a small
In the kickstart video for July 26, 2024, I take a look at three other major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD is trading up and down over the last three trading days. In the buyer’s favor, the low price today stalled ahead of its 38.2% retracement
Prior month 68.2 Current condition 62.7 versus 64.1 preliminary and 65.9 last month. Expectation 68.8 versus 67.2 preliminary, and 69.6 last month 1 year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 2.9% preliminary and 3.0% last month. 5 year inflation expectations 3.0% versus 2.9% preliminary and 3.0% last month A mix of the details compared to the preliminary.
Mon: Chinese Industrial Profit (Jun) Tue: Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jun), Australian Building Approvals (Jun), Spanish Flash CPI (Jul), Swiss KoF (Jul), German GDP (Q2), Prelim. CPI (Jul), EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Jul), US JOLTS (Jun) Wed: FOMC Announcement, BoJ Announcement and Outlook Report, BCB Announcement; Chinese NBS PMI (Jul), Australian CPI (Q2/Jun), German Retail Sales
The AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been running in tandem this week to the downside, but the NZDUSD has seen more downside momentum. Yesterday, the AUDUSD fell below its key 200 day moving average and 50% retracement near 0.6583 and 0.6579 respectively. The price then increase momentum with a break below the 61.8% retracement of the
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