Fundamental Overview This week has been pretty boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP report. As a
Month: August 2024
The main driver of US dollar strength over the past number of years was ‘US exceptionalism’. That’s meant stronger growth and higher US interest rates. The stronger growth narrative is still in place — even if it requires a deficit at 7% of GDP — but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has deconstructed the second part
The next step depends on data points Inflation moved a lot faster than expected I list the range of potential Fed decisions from no cut to 50 bps Solid business conditions give the Fed space to be patient The market is right to price in a return to 3.00% but what I’m thinking about is:
Fundamental Overview This week has been pretty boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP report. As a
SPX daily chart There was no lack of drama in the final day of equity trading in what was a wild ride in August. The S&P 500 opened strongly and then gave it all back to trade in negative territory at midday. However some steady bids emerged in the afternoon before a massive wave of
People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate
While the EURUSD and the GBPUSD trades between the 100 and 200-hour MAs. The USDCHF is also trading between those two MAs as the last trading of the day of the weeks gets started The 100-hour MA is below the current price at 0.8448 (blue line in the chart below). The higher 200-hour MA is
August 2024 official Chinese PMIs from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Composite is 50.1 August Manufacturing PMI 49.1 Services 50.3 expected 50.0, prior 50.2 — The Chinese economy has been showing, and continues to show, a patchy and uneven recovery. Key trouble spots include: an uncertain property sector outlook, the sector is mired in
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Villeroy is out with some comments in the French press: The market view is reasonable on rates at 2-2.50% in 2025 The ECB must be wary of risk of insufficient growth Full interview The euro is flat today at 1.1075. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Source link
Fundamental Overview Crude oil has been on a seesaw this week as we got a rally on Monday on the news that Libya was going to close down all oil fields and halt production and exports. That spike eventually got faded and prices even fell below the level seen before the news. Yesterday, we got
Markets: Gold down $19 to $2501 WTI crude oil down $2.47 to $73.44 US 10-year yields up 4.3 bps to 3.81% S&P 500 up 0.6% USD leads, JPY lags. It was tough to tie the fundamentals to the market moves today, as is often the case at month end. Tokyo CPI was hot earlier and
On the face of it, the Q2 Canadian GDP report looked good today at 2.1% annualized compared to 1.6% expected. It also handily beat the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 1.5%. The problem is that the composition of growth was in all the wrong places. Consumer spending rose at just a 0.6% annualized rate while
Fundamental Overview After the strong push lower from last Friday when Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the USDCHF pair hasn’t moved much as the lack of catalysts this week kept the price action at bay. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next
Prelim was 67.8 Prior was 66.4 Current conditions 61.3 vs 60.9 prelim (62.7 prior) Expectations 72.1 vs 72.1 prelim (68.8 prior) 1-year inflation 2.8% vs 2.9% prelim 5-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prelim Comments from survey director Joanne Hsu: Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading; after drifting down for four months, sentiment inched up 1.5
Most retail traders believe that the win rate is the most important metric in trading and it’s usually the first thing they look at when searching for a strategy. That has to do with human psychology as we don’t like pain and losses, so we try to avoid that as much as possible. Unfortunately, in
The mandate of the SNB is to maintain price stability — a crucial precondition for society and a good functioning economy Price stability is a crucial precondition for prosperity These are boilerplate comments. I’ll highlight anything new if it crosses. USD/CHF is up 45 pips to 0.8467 today. More: The central bank reacted early to
Yesterday at this time, the price of gold was trying to stay below the 100/200 hour MAs near $2510 (blue and green lines). Sellers could not keep the pressure on and the sellers turned to buyers. After some intraday volatility yesterday, buyers returned and pushed the price back up to the ceiling area between $2526.43
French prelim HICP YY: 2.2% vs 2.1% expected French prelim HICP MM: % vs 0.5% expected French CPI YY: 1.9% vs 1.8% expected French CPI MM: % vs 0.5% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com. Source link
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