Fundamental
Overview
Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise.
The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025.
What’s important is that
the Fed is cutting into a resilient economy which should lead to better growth
expectations and support the stock market.
Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Nasdaq Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq is now back at the key 20000 level. The sellers will likely
lean on the level to position for a drop into the major trendline.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into new highs.
Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Nasdaq 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline to
position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to
increase the bearish bets into new lows.
Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Nasdaq 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the whipsaw on the Fed’s decision
and then the rally overnight. There’s not much else we can glean from this
timeframe as the buyers will look to buy the dips, while the sellers will wait
for a bearish catalyst or a break below the trendline. The red lines define the
average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures which is the last important
economic release of the week.