Broader markets are still largely clinging on to the post-election sentiment this week. However, today will add something different to the mix as we will have the US CPI report in focus. While inflation numbers haven’t been too important in recent months, it is one that could still impact trading sentiment. That especially if the disinflation process meets a couple of bumps along the way.
And looking at the expectations for today’s report, that might shape up to be the case at least for the October estimates.
via Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos)
Core monthly inflation is expected to nudge up by ~0.30% while headline monthly inflation is expected to nudge up by ~0.21%. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is expected to hold at 3.3% – similar to September. As for headline annual inflation, it is expected to come in a little higher this time at 2.6%.
According to Goldman Sachs, we should be seeing less disinflationary pressures from previously softer components such as airfares and used cars prices. Their estimates show the former increasing by 1.0% this month with the latter up 2.5%. So, that’s one part of the argument.
At the balance, the report today should not provide a major reaction if within estimates. I reckon the balance of risks at this point is favouring an outsized reaction on an upside surprise, as compared to a downside miss.
Fed funds futures are showing ~63% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for December and that has been toned down since last week. If there is any upside surprise, the scope for a materially bigger shift in odds there is much wider as compared to a downside miss. So, that’s the key consideration now.
Here’s Goldman Sachs’ playbook in terms of the S&P 500 reaction:
h/t @ ZeroHedge