Fundamental
Overview
Gold continues to make new
highs as the correction from the repricing of the rate cuts ended last week. In
fact, if you recall, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a
less dovish Powell, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three
rate cuts by the end of 2025.
This is generally a signal
that the market is fine with the pricing, and we would need stronger reasons to
price out the remaining rate cuts.
In the bigger picture, gold
remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the
Fed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will be triggered by a
repricing in rate cuts expectations.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold continues to push into new highs as it broke through key
technical resistances and the buyers kept on piling in. The natural target is
of course a new all-time high. The sellers will need to see the price falling
back below the major trendline
to gain conviction and position for a drop into the next major trendline around
the 2400 level.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the key technical breaks first with the resistance
zone around the 2600 level and then with the downward trendline. We now have a
minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will
likely lean on it to keep targeting new highs, while the sellers will look for
a break lower to position for a break below the major trendline.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a nice support zone around the 2640 level where we can also
find the trendline for confluence.
There’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce,
while the sellers will look for a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the
week with the US PMIs.