There was a popular theory among central bankers coming out of the post-covid inflation shock: That the world had changed. The overwhelming line of thought is that we would never get back to ZIRP or negative interest rates and that the neutral rate was higher. I’ve yet to hear a compelling reason for why that

Senior IMF official: China’s property sector problems have not been addressed in a comprehensive way, leading to consumer confidence plummeting. The risk of deflation in China has increased, which hurts Asian countries that must compete with China’s falling export prices. Any kind of political uncertainty has a bearing on sentiment and economic activity, when asked

From our glossary; The ‘blackout’ policy from the Federal Reserve limits the extent to which Federal Open Market Committee participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews. The period begins the two Saturdays preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. So, while Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan is speaking, giving

Our friends over at Newsquawk picked up a BMO note that argues that the Bank of England is more likely to hold rates unchanged in light of the UK budget and the reaction in bond markets. “Considering the composition of the MPC, and the effect the budget measures will have on the BoE projections and

Monetary conditions remain restrictive, rates need to come down Inflation is easing, must pay attention to weakness in the economy Must avoid the risk of pushing inflation well below target It just reaffirms the policy path they are on now, so it isn’t anything new. But considering the recent data, it might be tough to

The Bank of Japan maintained its short term interest rate target at 0.25%, as expected, in a unanimous decision. In its report the Bank made mention, specifically of FX impacts. Worth being aware of this. It doesn’t change the reaction of Japanese authorities to a rapidly falling yen, I wouldn’t think. USD/JPY has done very

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Swiss franc is a safe haven, it appreciates in times of uncertainty SNB ready to intervene in currency markets as necessary Ready to react to pressure on the franc as well With EUR/CHF keeping closer to the lows for the year, it is telling of market sentiment regarding the franc. And that is despite the

1500 GMT / 1100 US Eastern time: Keynote speech by ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel at SAFE-CEPR conference on Euro@25 organised by Leibniz Institute SAFE 25 years of existence marks a significant milestone for the Euro. From the ‘greatest monetary experiment’ within living memory, the project has navigated challenges in its infancy, weathered a profound

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel says that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could leave Fed Funds unchanged (announcement due November 7) if there is a substantial upside surprise to the nonfarm payrol headline on Friday (November 1) Siegel spoke with CNBC last week: “If we get a strong labor market report for the month

Citi on the Bank of Japan meeting this week (October 30 – 31). The market view is for no change to policy at this meeting. Citi, too, is tipping no policy change. we share the widely held view that policy will be left unchanged consensus is a rate hike in either December or January Citi

All 72 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Bank of England to lower rates to 4.75% next week but what happens at the subsequent meeting on December 19 is far less certain. Of the 72, there are 46 who predict no change and 26 predict a cut. The majority expecting a hold runs counter to

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

European Central Bank policy rate-setter Knot spoke on Saturday, watering down expectation of a December ECB rate cut just a little: “It is important that we keep all options open. Retaining full optionality would act as a hedge against the materialization of risks in either direction to the growth and inflation outlook,” “We believe that

Sun: Japanese LDP Election Mon: Japanese Jobs Report (Sep) Tue: German GfK (Nov), US JOLTS (Oct) Wed: UK Budget, Australian CPI (Sep), Spanish Flash CPI (Oct), US ADP (Oct), German Flash GDP (Q3) and Prelim CPI (Oct), EZ Prelim GDP (Oct), US GDP Advance (Q3), Japanese Retail Sales (Sep) Thu: BoJ Announcement and Outlook Report,

Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) 700bn injected 1 year 2% rate 789bn mature This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source link

1830 GMT / 1430 US Eastern time: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will address journalists and answer questions in-person and virtually at the sidelines of the IMF meeting *** The Bank of Canada cut by 50bp this week: Bank of Canada is out of touch, “didn’t grasp the challenges facing the Canadian economy” RBC

11:00 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins participates in a fireside chat on the Boston Fed’s portfolio of work, supporting the Fed’s Congressional mandates The last we heard from Collins was in early October, arguing the case for a further 50bp of rate cuts by the end of the year. That view may

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Having returned to low inflation, Canada is in a better place to deal with new economic shocks There’s a fair amount of uncertainty on how quickly Canada’s new immigration curbs kick in, BOC will be watching Effect of changes in assumptions about population growth will have a bigger impact on our GDP forecast that our

The Federal Reserve blackout starts at midnight ET but it looks like it will begin about 12 hours before that with a light calendar of Fed speakers today. The lone one on the schedule is Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaking in a fireside chat about the Boston Fed’s wide ranging work. I wouldn’t expect

No need for the ECB to contemplate such a scenario That would require weaker baseline and substantial undershooting of inflation target I guess we know which side of the debate that he is on. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. Source link

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Economic weakness suggests we could get to 2% inflation earlier than end-2025 We should not remain in restrictive territory when we get to target Services weak, industry not recovering Someone in Europe gets it. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Source link

A 25 bps rate cut in December is not ruled out But it is not fully decided just yet I reckon it is pretty much a given unless there are upside surprises to both economic and inflation data in the weeks ahead. Otherwise, one or the other should likely validate another rate cut. But significant

The Bank of Canada took an axe to its benchmark rate today with a 50bp cut: Check out those posts above for the ‘as it happened’, but if you wan the TL;DR (mine anyway), the Bank of Canada cut 50 due to: rising unemployment (quite quickly) inflation well on its way to target very poor

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The report says that ECB policymakers have already begun debating at what level do interest rates need to go in order to start stimulating the economy. The sources did say that any consensus is still a long way off though but it marks a significant turning point in the latest cycle, which could see the

The Bank of Canada rate decision is on Wednesday and a strong consensus has formed around the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut. It would be the first jumbo rate cut of the cycle that started in June and has seen three 25 bps cuts so far. The OIS market is priced for a