Markets: Bitcoin up 14% to record $87,200 WTI crude down $2.21 to $68.17 Bond market closed for holiday Gold down $58 to $2625 S&P 500 flat Russell 2000 +1.6% US and Canadian newsflow was extremely light on Monday in large part due to Veteran’s Day and Remembrance Day holidays. There was some talk of Trump

It’s Veterans Day in the US and Remembrance Day in Canada. It’s one of those holidays that’s not quite a holiday as stock markets will trade normally but the bond market is closed. It’s also one of those holidays where government offices are closed, which means there is no economic data. So it all adds

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations data can move the NZD a little. Keep an eye on the two year horizon. This is the important one for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The bank views this as as a reasonable time frame over which its policy changes impact. The Reserve Bank of New

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: BoJ Summary of Opinions. (US Holiday) Tuesday: UK Labour Market report, Eurozone ZEW, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Fed’s SLOOS. Wednesday: Japan PPI, Australia Wage Price Index, US CPI. Thursday: Australia Labour Market report, UK GDP, Eurozone Employment Change and Industrial Production, US PPI, US Jobless Claims, Fed Chair Powell. Friday:

MUFG anticipates a resumption of USD appreciation over the coming months, following a brief pullback post-election. President-elect Trump’s strong mandate and planned policies on trade tariffs, tax cuts, and increased fiscal spending are expected to support higher yields and drive USD strength, particularly over the next 3-6 months. Key Points: Trump Policy Impact: Trump’s policies—tariffs,

John Paulson An earlier report highlighted John Paulson and Scott Bessent as possible candidates for Treasury Secretary and now Reuters sources say those are the leading candidates. I wrote about Paulson earlier in the week and emphasized that he’s a major gold bull. Now, I don’t know that he’s going to advocate adding to US

Markets: S&P 500 up 0.4% WTI crude oil down $1.88 to $70.48 Gold down $24 to $2683 US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 4.30% JPY leads, AUD lags China set the table for US markets on Friday as the stimulus announcements disappointed, leading to a 5.5% decline in US-listed China ETFs and a slump

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

When Trump autographed a stock chart Closing changes on the day: S&P 500 +0.4% – record close Nasdaq Comp +0.1% DJIA +0.6% Russell 2000 +0.7% Toronto TSX Comp -0.4% Closing changes on the week: S&P 500 +4.7% Nasdaq Comp +5.7% Russell 2000 +8.6% Toronto TSX Comp +2.1% Congratulations to everyone who held stocks through the

Headlines: Markets: JPY leads, AUD lags on the day European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1% US 10-year yields down 2.5 bps to 4.317% Gold down 0.7% to $2,687.42 WTI crude down 1.1% to $71.52 Bitcoin up 0.1% to $76,066 The post-election musings are continuing in markets, with traders still sorting out their feet

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

In addition, Powell was what he always is: A dove. Closing changes: S&P 500 +0.7% Nasdaq Comp +1.5% DJIA flat Russell 2000 -0.2% Toronto TSX Comp +0.8% The market is convincing itself “he didn’t mean it” on tariffs and the strongest evidence for that was the 5% rally in China ETFs today. This article was

Headlines: Markets: AUD leads, USD lags on the day European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2% US 10-year yields up 1.5 bps to 4.441% Gold up 0.3% to $2,667.91 WTI crude down 1.0% to $70.99 Bitcoin down 1.3% to $74,981 There wasn’t much follow through to the post-election moves yesterday, at least not for

USD/JPY tumbling China Airlines close to split order for 20 passenger jets between Airbus and Boeing. There is a deluge of European Central Bank speakers Thursday – Lane (3 spots!), Schnabel AUD and NZD continue to retrace yesterday’s losses China October dollar denominated exports +12.7% y/y & imports -2.3% China’s Xi Jinping congratulates Trump on

Add some political intrigue into the mix as German Chancellor Scholz says he will call for a confidence vote on Jan 15 that would allow for election before the end of March. He also highlighted that “of all the rich democracies, we have by far the lowest debt”. That’s the sort of thing a politician

EUR/USD daily chart The drop today brings the pair down to its lowest levels since June, with the daily decline itself set to even eclipse that seen in March 2020. The over 2% drop now is going to be the worst daily decline for EUR/USD since June 2016 amid the Brexit referendum vote. What a

I’m not sure where the votes are here but the biggest risk to the moves we have seen so far is if Democrats gain control of the House. Betting sites have Republicans as big favorites to win it but those are thin markets. It’s really tough to crunch the numbers in that department but the

Prior was 4.066% Bid to cover 2.58 vs 2.48 prior Virtually everyone thought this one would tail because of election risks but someone showed up and we got a 0.3 bps stop through. I still find it hard to believe that will undo any pre-election angst but I believe it sets up the bond market

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

AUD/USD bounced a little around 0.6580 to 0.6590 levels on the decision but that’s not indicative of much. The pair remains rangebound, stuck within a 19 pips range on the day. That is telling of the reaction to the RBA’s expected decision here. So, what’s the main takeaway that we can gather from their latest

Barclays expects the RBA to adopt a hawkish tone at its November meeting, reinforcing the message that rate cuts are unlikely in 2024. With the Australian economy operating above potential and core inflation still above target, the RBA is expected to signal a steady path for now, while providing updated economic forecasts. Key Points: Hawkish

After a bit of a lackluster start to the session in Europe, we’re starting to see things pick up again now nearing US trading. The dollar opened with a gap lower with focus on the US election tomorrow and is now starting to track back to the lows for the day. USD/JPY is back down

I posted back in October the dates of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC), November 4 to 8. The NPC is the country’s highest legislative body, serving as a key component of its government structure. It convenes annually to set national policy, approve budgets, and pass laws. In addition, the NPC formally elects leaders, such as

OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it will delay the planned December voluntary output increase by one month. Last week there was a report that this was on the table so it’s not a big surprise. If anything, the oil market could be disappointed that it wasn’t extended for more than a month. I expect any

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Japan on holiday. Tuesday: China Caixin Services PMI, RBA Policy Decision, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, BoC Meeting Minutes, New Zealand Labour Market report, US Presidential Election. Wednesday: Eurozone PPI. Thursday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, Eurozone Retail Sales, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims, FOMC Policy Decision. Friday: Canada Labour

Earlier I wrote a post highlighting why Presidential betting odds have tightened. Well, in the last hour they’ve tightened further and it’s from a somewhat shocking place — Iowa. It was once a swing state but Trump won it by a large margin in 2016 and 2020. It’s largely been abandoned by the Harris campaign.

U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have failed, partly due to a “unrealistic” U.S. proposal and Israel’s insistence on enforcing a truce directly. With no viable proposal ahead of the U.S. presidential election, sources close to Hezbollah and diplomats fear the conflict may persist for months. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Markets: Gold down $10 to $2734 US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 4.38% WTI crude oil up 20-cents to $69.46 S&P 500 up 0.4% GBP leads, CHF lags The crosscurrents in markets continued on Friday as we count down to the US election. It’s tough to separate moves based on economic data from election