Believes the neutral rate is higher than it used to be in the past The Funds rate is high relative to where inflation is currently Always want to keep monetary policy moving to where the economy is going. There is room to go in nominal funds rate before reaching the neutral rate. Fed has to

The State Council Information Office of China held a highly-anticipated press conference on Saturday, led by Finance Minister Lan Fo’an. The market was hoping for further announcements on fiscal stimulus after an invitation said to media said officials would outline the country’s plans for intensifying countercyclical adjustments to its fiscal policy. Instead, the press conference

Markets: Gold up $26 to $2655 US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.08% WTI crude down 30 cents to $75.56 NZD leads, JPY lags S&P 500 up 0.7%, touches fresh record Friday turned into a classic risk-on day but it’s not entirely clear why. Stock futures were negative and the US dollar was steady

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

For me, this is a more-important report than today’s jobs data. Business Outlook Survey indicator remains negative, signaling widespread softness ” demand is weak, firms have excess capacity, and price growth continues to slow” but little deterioration since last quarter Firms reported weak past sales growth due to past inflation and interest rate increases continuing

Major currencies aren’t showing much appetite with dollar pairs keeping lightly changed still in the opening hour in Europe. Here’s a snapshot of things so far on the day: Dollar pairs are pretty much keeping within 0.1% change with narrow ranges prevailing for the most part. Outside of USD/JPY, other dollar pairs are holding within

Barclays analysts suggest that a potential Israeli strike on Iranian oil production or export infrastructure presents a binary risk to the global oil markets. Such an event could shrink the current excess in spare capacity, which has been exerting downward pressure on prices, while simultaneously introducing a considerable geopolitical risk premium. This dynamic, they note,

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 46 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 135 bps ECB: 50 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 145 bps BoE: 35 bps (77% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 116 bps BoC: 69 bps (68% probability of

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

USDJPY daily There hasn’t been a clear catalyst for the turnaround in risk sentiment in the past two hours but it’s real and widespread. The S&P 500 just touched a record high and Treasury yields are inching up. The FX market is also validating the move with risk trades improving. USD/JPY is up 104 pips

Defensive sectors prop up Europe’s STOXX 600 as China uncertainty lingers Full Story on PiQ Suite European stocks gained slightly, with defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and real estate supporting the STOXX 600 amid ongoing concerns about China’s stimulus plans. Mining and luxury sectors linked to China struggled, while Rio Tinto slipped 0.7% following its

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

US stock markets are cruising today as tech rips but it was a different story in Europe as optimism about exports to China ebbed. Stoxx 600 -0.5% Germany DAX -0.2% France CAC -0.7% UK FTSE 100 -1.4% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB -0.3% The FTSE 100 has been too quiet for too long. This

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Wages data Japan for August 2024. Total cash earnings +3.0% y/y expected +3.1%, prior +3.6% Inflation adjusted real wages -0.6% y/y Overtime pay +2.6% y/y Disappointing data on wages on balance and not as yen positive as it could be, at the margin (BOJ wants higher wagers to drive inflation) Source link

US CPI m/m Morgan Stanley forecasts that the September CPI report will show core inflation rising by 0.26%, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. While goods inflation is expected to improve due to used cars and airfares, services inflation is projected to decelerate. The report’s implications for headline and core inflation will guide expectations for the Fed’s

Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 15% after better-than-expected jobs report Full Story on PiQ Suite Goldman Sachs has lowered the odds of the United States slipping into a recession in the next 12 months by five percentage points to 15%, following the latest employment report that showed better-than-expected data. The Wall Street

Trump spoke on Sunday, said he would place up to 200% tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico. The big 3 US auto makers all have plants building cars for the US market in Mexico. Trump had previously promised 100% tariffs on imported cars and trucks. But on Sunday ratcheted this up to 200%: “We’ll put

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Eurozone Retail Sales. (China on holiday) Tuesday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, RBA Meeting Minutes, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Wednesday: RBNZ Policy Decision, FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday: Japan PPI, ECB Meeting Minutes, US CPI, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI. Friday: UK GDP, Canada Labour Market report, US PPI, US

China began its week-long National Day holiday on Tuesday October 1. In the week leading up to the holiday beginning Chinese authorities announced an array of economic stimulus measures. SOme of the measures were aimed specifically at the property sector, such as: reductions in down-payment ratios reductions in mortgage rates an easing in property buying

Mixed news out of Saudi Arabia, info comes via Bloomberg citing a pricing list they’ve seen: Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of its key Arab Light crude to Asia by 90 cents, bringing it to a $2.20 per barrel premium over the regional benchmark vs. expected 65 cents / bbl cut the price

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

US stocks moved higher despite yields moving higher as US jobs showed strength and the striking dockworkers reached a tentative agreement averting a prolonged closure of key port’s A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 341.16 points or 0.81% at 42352.75 S&P index rose 51.13 points or 0.90% at 5751.07 NASDAQ

The US September jobs report today exceeded expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 254K compared to the 140K anticipated. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%, nearly reaching 4.0%, and the participation rate held steady at 62.7%. Private payrolls surged by 223K, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year, both above

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Spain Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) Actual: -0.1% 🔴 Expected: 0.1% Previous: -0.4% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com. Source link

Dock workers have agreed to suspend strike activity to January 15 There are conflicting reports but it is clear that workers have returned to their jobs. AP reports that the union representing 45,000 striking U.S. dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports has reached a deal to suspend their strike until January 15 to provide

MUFG has revised its outlook for the Bank of England (BoE), now expecting back-to-back rate cuts before year-end. This adjustment reflects growing evidence of decelerating economic growth in the UK. Key Points: Recent sentiment indicators, including the GfK consumer confidence index, PMIs, CBI Orders index, and the Lloyds Business Barometer, are showing a downward trend,

MORNING BLAST WITH @PiQSuite AND @MrMBrown Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. Thurs 3rd Oct. 08:30 BST / 09:30 CET / 03:30 EST Set Reminder Here 15 minutes to kickstart your trading day This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com. Source link