The USDCHF continues to trade within a narrow range, fluctuating between 0.8400 and 0.85368 since August 20 (a month ago now). The majority of price action has been contained within this range, with brief extremes on either side that quickly fizzled out. Key technical levels include the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at

As the clock ticks toward the weekend, a look at the USDCAD with a look toward next week is important. This week, the price action got more volatile on Wednesday helped by the FOMC rate decision. The initial move was to the downside, but the 100-bar moving average on a 4-hour charts stalled the fall

The US stocks are moving a little higher on the Fed Waller comments. The Nasdaq index moved to a low of 17835.64. That got close to filling the gap from yesterday’s trading which had a gap down to 17832.70 (so got within 3 points of that level). The price has moved back toward the low

In the morning video, I spoke about the 50% midpoint of the move up from the January 2023 low at 144.581. The price has been trading above and below that level over the last 1-2 months, but the run higher this week has returned back to the level, and that gives traders an option: Lean

The AUDUSD moved up and tested a swing level near 0.6823 in the Asian and European session. The price then moved lower as stocks fell in the early US trading. However, as the price of the AUDUSD approached its rising 100 hour moving average at 0.6778, the buyers have returned, and stalled the fall. Why

In the kickstart video from earlier today, I highlighted the key levels in the GBPUSD. On the downside the 1.3265 was key support. Looking at the GBPUSD price action since then (see chart below), the low price for the day came in at 1.32676, just 2 pips short of the targeted support. So the buyers

The NASDAQ index is down -100 points or -0.55%. The prices back down testing the low price from yesterday near 17909.75. Early today, the price fell below that level on its way to fill the gap from Wednesday to Thursday ( i.e the high from Wednesday). Buyers came in near the level and pushed the

Earlier today, in the kickstart video, I outlined the following key support level for the EURUSD. That level was shown and outlined between 1.1131 and 1.11399. Here is that clip…. So what happened? Below is the chart of the price action today. Of not is the low price stalled between the level outlined in the

Fundamental Overview On Wednesday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25

Earlier in the US session, I posted: The price did bounce off the 100-hour MA, and after getting above the 1.1140 level, has extended up to a corrective high of 1.1167. The next target comes in at the high for the day at 1.1178. Above that and the high from yesterday and from August 28

The GBPUSD experienced a volatile session today, similar to many other pairs. Following the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the price surged to a high of 1.33132. However, the momentum reversed after the US weekly jobless claims report came in better than expected, prompting a rotation lower. The price tested a

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps

The EURUSD moved higher (lower USD) after the Fed cut rates by 50 bps. The price extended higher and toward swing highs for the year. The 2nd to last swing high target was at 1.11897, and that level was reached. What wasn’t reached was the double top at 1.12009 from August 23 and August 26..

The USDCAD moved lower with the dollar but as the comments from the Fed chair were sprinkled with the “economy is not doing badly”, gave the USD a boost. Looking at the USDCAD, moving below the cluster of MAs between 1.3580 to 1.3588 could not be helped but the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some more positive US data releases as the US retail sales came out a touch better than expected and the industrial production data beat forecasts erasing the hurricane related weakness in July. Despite that, the market is still pricing a 63% probability for a 50 bps cut at today’s decision.

The AUDUSD has been stepping higher over the last five or so trading days and in the process has used a series of key moving averages that have increased the bullish bias and provided the roadmap for the move to the upside. 5 days ago, the price based against the 200-day moving average and moved

The USDJPY is ticking above the 200-hour MA at 141.988. The next target comes in at 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September high. That level comes in at 142.485. Move above that, and the door opens for a move toward 143.38 to 143.67 where the 50% is found. , This article was

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

The USDJPY moved to the lowest level since July 31 2023 after falling below the end of December low at 140.248. The low price extended to a somewhat random level at 139.570 before rotating back to the upside. That move has now taken the price back above the end of December low at 140.248. It

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $70.09. The low for the day reached $68.68. The high for the day extended up to $70.66. Technically, the price low today stalled right near its 200-hour moving average. That moving average is currently at $68.62. The subsequent move to the upside also moved back above

Fundamental Overview Late Thursday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed like suggesting that a 50 bps cut is still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 43% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is mixed to lower. TGIF to all traders. The USDJPY is reacting to the BOJ not raising and the Fed perhaps going 50 bps. The day after the ECB cut, a number of ECB officials are

In the kickstart video, for September 13, 2024, I take a look at three other major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USJDPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it moved to a swing area between 1.10976 and 1.11042 and found willing sellers. That area will be a key resistance level today and going forward. Move above

The USDCHF is moving lower with the US yields. The price has broken below a cluster of moving averages defined by the 200 hour moving average and the 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart at 0.8478, and the 100 hour moving average of 0.84916. Stay below those levels keeps the sellers more

The AUDUSD is higher for the week after dipping lower earlier in the week where the 200 day moving average stalled the fall. The subsequent move to the upside was able to extend above resistance rotated back down toward support and extend above resistance and and step pattern defined by technical levels. Today the run

The USDCAD closed the week at 1.3558. The current price is a little higher at 1.3580. The high price for the week reached 1.3622 on Wednesday. That move took the price above a swing area with the high at 1.36188, but quickly reversed lower. The high price stalled ahead of the 38.2% of the move

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The price of crude oil is now trading in negative territory and $69.08. That is down from a high of $70.32. Looking at the hourly chart, the price action this week did move above its 200-hour moving average (currently at $68.93) on its way to the high today. That move higher today also exceeded above

Fundamental Overview Crude oil is finally finding some footing this week as the dip-buyers might be looking forward to the Fed’s easing cycle. As a reminder, the positioning in crude oil is at a record 13 years low and the sentiment is very bearish. These factors can generally offer great contrarian opportunities. The main reason